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WHAT's THE IMPACT OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ON THE HOUSING MARKET?

As the Presidential election draws near, many prospective homebuyers and sellers may find themselves wondering how the outcome might impact the housing market. It's natural to feel uncertain during an election year, and you may be questioning whether it's a good time to make a move. Fortunately, historical data offers valuable insights that can help guide your decisions.

Home Sales During Election Years

One of the primary concerns for those in the housing market during an election year is whether home sales will be affected. Historically, there tends to be a slight slowdown in home sales in the month leading up to a Presidential election, typically from October to November. This slowdown is often attributed to the uncertainty surrounding the election outcome, causing some buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

However, it's important to note that this slowdown is generally small and temporary. After 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales actually increased the following year, according to data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This pattern has been consistent since the early 1990s, indicating that any dip in home sales during the election cycle is short-lived and typically followed by a rebound.

Home Prices and Election Years

Another key consideration is whether home prices are affected by Presidential elections. The good news is that home prices have historically continued their upward trend during election years. According to housing analyst Ryan Lundquist, an election year does not typically alter the existing price trend in the market.

Data from NAR shows that after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year. The one exception was during the 2008-2009 period, which coincided with the housing market crash—a unique and atypical event. In today's market, while prices are moderating in some areas, they are not on a broad decline. Therefore, you can generally expect home prices to continue following their current trajectory, barring any significant economic disruptions.

Mortgage Rates in Election Years

Mortgage rates are another critical factor for buyers, as they directly influence monthly mortgage payments. Historically, mortgage rates have decreased from July to November in 8 of the last 11 Presidential election years, according to data from Freddie Mac. This year appears to be following that trend, with experts forecasting a slight easing of mortgage rates throughout the remainder of 2024.

Lower mortgage rates can enhance your purchasing power, making it an opportune time to buy a home. If you are considering purchasing a property in the near future, the potential for declining rates could work in your favor.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are generally minimal. According to Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, the housing market during Presidential election years does not tend to differ significantly from other years. This resilience means that most buyers and sellers can proceed with their plans without being overly concerned about the election's impact on the housing market.

Bottom Line

As you navigate the housing market during an election year, it's essential to stay informed and rely on historical data to guide your decisions. The temporary nature of any slowdown in home sales, the continued upward trend in home prices, and the potential for declining mortgage rates all suggest that the housing market remains strong and resilient during Presidential election years. Therefore, there's no need to put your plans on hold—whether you're buying or selling, the market is likely to remain favorable.

At Destiny Aigbe, we understand that making real estate decisions during an election year can be daunting. Our team of experienced professionals is here to provide you with the guidance and support you need to navigate the complexities of the housing market. If you have any questions or need assistance with your real estate transactions, please don't hesitate to contact us.

Gayatri Gupta